新冠肺炎疫情下对提升交通运输综合执法能力的思考

当前，我国正处于新冠肺炎疫情防控最吃劲的关键时期，同时也是交通运输综合执法改革深入推进的攻坚阶段。面对疫情防控的严峻考验，交通运输综合执法能力的既有短板与疫情防控中暴露出的新问题相互交织，提升交通运输综合执法能力显得十分紧迫而必要。为此，采用文献调查、访谈研究和实证分析等方法，总结了抗击疫情期间的交通运输执法状况，分析了疫情防控对交通运输综合执法能力建设带来的挑战，从完善执法工作机制、提升专业处置能力、严格规范执法行为、创新执法方式方法、强化执法作风建设、建立法律服务体系、强化执法保障等七个方面，就提升交通运输综合执法能力提出了对策建议。     

Structural relationships among shipper’s perception,value, and choice intention of Korea–China train ferry service

ABSTRACT

The logistics environment between China and Korea has been changing rapidly in line with the ‘Go West’ policy of international trade and logistics area. The policy includes the BRI, Western Development Strategy, and Korea–China FTA. Against this background, the Korea–China train ferry (KCTF) is being newly illuminated as an alternative mode to cope with the logistics environment between Korea and China. One of the key success factors of the KCTF depends on, among others, shippers’ perception, which will affect the choice and the successful operation of the KCTF. From this perspective, this paper develops seven hypotheses based on the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). We test these hypotheses using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to explore the structural relationship between shippers’ behavioral beliefs influencing the perceived usefulness, the attitude toward and intention to choose the KCTF. The test results confirm that among the behavioral beliefs, transport accessibility in association with an efficient network of inland roads and railway networks is an important prerequisite. In addition, we verified a high statistical significance in the structural relationships among perceived usefulness, the attitude toward and the intention to choose the KCTF.     

高速磁浮车辆悬浮架装配关键技术研究

文章针对高速磁浮车辆悬浮架装配关键技术展开研究,通过悬浮架的功能与技术以及各结构模块组成关系对悬浮架进行分析,确定装配工艺流程、工艺重点与难点,实现了装配的技术要求。     

Extreme hawser tension assessment for FPSO vessel during offloading operation in Bohai bay

The Floating Production Storage and Offloading Unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport.Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during offloading operations, posing an operational risk. In this paper, AQWA has been used to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions. Experimental validation of numerical results has been discussed as well.This paper advocates methodology for estimating extreme response statistics, based on simulations (or measurements). The modified ACER (averaged conditional exceedance rate) method is presented in brief detail. Proposed methodology provides an accurate extreme value prediction, utilizing all available data efficiently. In this study the estimated return level values, obtained by ACER method, are compared to the corresponding return level values obtained by Gumbel method. Based on the overall performance of the proposed method, it is concluded that the improved ACER method can provide more robust and accurate prediction of the extreme hawser tension.Data declustering issue has been addressed. Paper highlights ability of ACER method to account for a set of varying sea state probabilities, as required in engineering long term statistical analysis.Described approach may be well used at the vessel design stage, while defining optimal vessel parameters that would minimize potential FPSO hawser tension.     

基于新型冠状病毒传播机理的交通出行易感度研究

为科学判断各交通方式出行过程中人群感染病毒的风险概率进而有效控制病毒传播，借助空气传染病模型，根据已发布的新型冠状病毒传播机理，构建了交通出行的病毒易感度评估模型，模型包含对病毒传播有重要影响的通风、载客密度、暴露时间等主要参数。选用各种运输方式中有代表性的运载工具进行不同假设情景下的易感度评估，结果表明，在各种有效防控措施均得以采用的情景下，乘坐交通工具的易感度相比高危情景降低97%以上，相比基准情景降低93%以上。研究可为交通领域的科学防疫、精准施策提供依据。     

驾驶人“感知-决策-操控”行为模型

为准确模拟驾驶人跟车行为，提出基于隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Model，HMM)的驾驶人“感知-决策-操控”行为模型。建立描述驾驶意愿的HMM模型，模拟驾驶人感知过程，获得期望的车间距；预测模块模拟驾驶人根据交通环境和自身生理、心理状态预测车辆未来轨迹，即决策过程；优化模块描述驾驶人为使预测的车辆轨迹跟踪上期望的车辆间距而采取的操控汽车的执行动作，即操控过程。上述3个模块的滚动过程实现了对驾驶人跟车行为的模拟。利用自然驾驶数据进行算例分析，结果表明，本文模型预测车间距平均误差仅为1.47%，证明了所建模型的有效性及准确性。本文为驾驶行为建模方法的理论研究和应用拓宽了思路。     

基于CATIA平台的三维集装箱导轨设计

在集装箱导轨设计中,存在着导轨需要安装的结构剖面多,不同剖面中连接肘板布置复杂,连接肘板种类繁多,重量统计繁琐等问题。该文基于计算机辅助三维交互应用(CATIA)平台,提出一种集装箱导轨的三维设计方法,利用CATIA的知识工程、参数化设计、统一装配等功能,有效提升了设计效率,使设计更加智能化,降低了后期修改工作量。     

BIM与GIS融合技术在航道整治工程中的应用

针对航道整治工程中BIM技术无法管理条带状工程、难以表达工程周边地理信息等难点,通过梳理BIM与GIS数据特点,研究探索BIM与GIS融合技术,提出了通过格式转换、坐标转换和数据关联实现BIM与GIS融合的方法。将研究成果应用在蕲春水道航道整治工程,验证了BIM与GIS融合方法的可行性,实现了BIM与GIS数据一体化浏览、显示、管理、分析等功能,解决了BIM无法管理大范围工程、无法反映工程周边环境的不足,为BIM与GIS技术在航道整治工程中的应用提供了技术支撑。     

拖航工况下半潜平台撑杆波浪砰击敏感性研究

半潜式平台在拖行过程撑杆等细长结构承受的波浪砰击对结构安全影响较大，相关船级社规范中明确要求结构分析过程中需要考虑波浪砰击载荷。基于传统势流理论的数值方法已经被广泛的应用于浮式海洋平台的水动力和砰击载荷的研究，但是对于复杂的粘性干涉效应、波浪爬升、波浪破碎和波浪砰击等实际工程问题不能够运用势流理论准确模拟。非定常的计算流体力学CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics)方法能够较为准确解决上述问题。因此，本文以982半潜式海洋平台为研究对象，采用计算流体力学中的动态重叠网格方法和流域体积域方法VOF(volume of fluid)，结合水池物理模型试验结果，对平台在拖行工况下撑杆的波浪砰击进行研究。主要对半潜平台撑杆在三种不同流速和风速的拖航工况下撑杆受到的砰击压力的敏感性进行了分析研究，分析波浪砰击下撑杆的瞬态砰击压强分布情况，得到波浪砰击压力危险区域，同时给出拖航工况下撑杆砰击压力系数的变化规律，为分析预报半潜式平台撑杆在复杂的拖航海况下受到的砰击压力提供了参考。     

山区铁路路堑边坡滑塌整治技术研究

山区铁路路堑边坡常出现滑塌现象,为保证铁路运营安全,需及时采取整治措施。本文以某铁路滑塌路堑边坡为例,根据现场调查、地质水文资料,结合数值模拟结果剖析路堑边坡稳定性及滑塌机制,并对引起边坡滑塌的因素制定针对性整治措施。结果表明:连续降雨以及长期排水不畅会导致地层性质减弱、滑动面下移,将诱发加固边坡发生二次滑塌;为减少对既有边坡防护的扰动破坏,对二次垮塌边坡挡护进行合理加固补强亦可满足边坡稳定要求。